For various reasons, I spent more of 2022 at the family farm than I had been planning. It is, undeniably, not a bad place to be held up. At least for three seasons of the year. There is good cycling. Lots of tools for projects. A well-staffed kitchen. Plenty of space. And above all, gardens. […]
A Year of Gardening: 2022 Read More »
I have always been particularly impressed with the forecasting performance of the Prophet model. It has only a few parts: seasonality, holidays, any external regressors, and with those it has some of the most consistent forecasting performance around. Also, being a linear model (with Bayesian parameter estimation), Prophet offers a decomposable explainability/interpretability, i.e. Monday has
Introducing the Cassandra Model Read More »
For a few months I’ve been working on a projects for which I have been working on a rather ‘fancy’ circuit board. But three weeks ago I had the desire to build another circuit board, a much simpler one – which would be my first to actually get into production. And it turned out to
A First Printed Circuit Board Read More »
For the birdnetpi I have setup at home, there’s been a desire for a good microphone that can sit outside and pick up a wide recording of the general soundscape, in particular of the birds singing. So far, I’ve tried a bunch of different microphones and all have worked. Note that this is after turning
Soldering the AOM 5024 Microphone Capsule Read More »
Naomi Novik is one of the best fantasy writers around. Her early book, His Majesty’s Dragon and following series was one of my favorites, but it had a problem. It rather wandered around the globe, Patrick O’Brian style. Unfortunately, as an obvious result, it felt rather disconnected and random at times. Naomi Novik conspicuously avoided
The Golden Enclaves: Naomi Novik finally completes a trilogy Read More »
The HP Book Studio G9 is very nearly perfect. I need a computer for data science with which I can also travel far and wide as a digital nomad, and I’ve been searching a while for the best one. Besides programming, movies and writing are the other use cases, and the occasional Civilization game. I
HP ZBook Studio 16 Inch G9 Review Read More »
One of the more exciting new features coming soon to AutoTS is the automatic detection of holidays. That’s exactly what it sounds like: figuring out when holidays are occurring and being able to generate that calendar for the future. Firstly, why is this needed? A couple of reasons. The big reason is that holidays are
Holiday Detection for Forecasting Read More »
Reading through documentation for a programming function to find what arguments it likes can be tedious, especially since many of the possible options either don’t work together or aren’t documented. Something I have been including on most of my newer classes is a static method called get_new_params(method=’random’) which does pretty much exactly as it says,
The simple elegance of `.get_new_params()` Read More »
For a model, metrics like MAE and RMSE and so on quantify how accurate a prediction is. However, the vast majority of metrics are symmetric, meaning they care equally about overestimates and underestimates. So far, I have found really one relatively common way for caring about direction: Mean Logarithmic Error (MLE). I also created the
Over and Underestimate Loss Metrics Read More »
Sister breaks newish phone (Pixel 5A), but it’s still connect, just the screen is dead. Seems a shame to throw all that away, but usually repair shops are more expensive than just buying a new phone. Timely fact was this Verge article in the news feed announcing the availability of official Google parts on iFixit.
Pixel 5a Phone Screen Replacement Read More »
